We had some luck with our home run predictions yesterday thanks to Rafael Devers coming through for us, so let's dive right back in to the home run market for today.
Another day in which we have a full MLB betting slate, leaving ample opportunity to find out best home run bets of the day.
Play 1: Gunnar Henderson to Hit a Home Run (+340) FanDuel
Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles, 7:15PM ET
We went with Gunnar yesterday to no luck, but he has been so good this year that there are no concerns going right back to him. Even though he did not hit one yard, he had a decent game overall with two hard hits and an average exit velocity above 95MPH, so he was still hitting the ball hard despite not hitting a home run.
On the year, Gunnar has the second-best ISO rate in the MLB, the fourth-highest hard hit rate, the seventh-highest average exit velocity, and is also facing right-handed pitching in Michael Lorenzen, which he is much better against. His ISO rate jumps up to .341 against RHP with a hard hit rate of 48.9%, both of which would be the second-best in the MLB only behind Aaron Judge.
Lorenzen has been worse against right-handed batters this year in terms of home runs given up, but looking into his advanced stats there is nothing concerning against lefties. His hard hit rate allowed is slightly lower against LHH, but his fly-ball rate is 6% higher against lefties so that somewhat equals out.
Play 2: Trea Turner to Hit a Home Run (+360) FanDuel
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies, 4:05PM ET
It must feel like a skeleton crew for Turner, with all three of Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, and JT Realmuto on the injured list for the next couple weeks. He will need to step up, and thankfully Turner has a great opportunity to come through for us this afternoon. He has had a good year overall, and has been good since he returned from his six week injury absence as well.
He returned from injury on 6/17, and since then he has only hit one home run, but is batting .295 with a .455 slugging percentage, and overall a 130 wRC+ (100 is average). He has at least one hard hit in every game since he returned, though, and has a great matchup against the Marlins pitcher Roddery Munoz. Additionally, this is one of the best games of the day from a weather perspective for home runs to be hit. The Phillies stadium is already a hitters park with shorter right and left field walls, but for today specifically it is going to be hot and humid (which helps with carry), and 14MPH winds blowing out of the stadium as well.
So, all Turner needs to do is get one in the air and the weather should be able to help with the rest, and, luckily for Turner, Munoz is the type of pitcher you want to go up against for that strategy. Munoz has made seven starts this season, and he has not been good in those starts. He has allowed an astonishing 14 home runs, with a HR/9 of 3.53 that would be the worst in the MLB by a wide margin. From there, he allows a barrel rate of 15.8% (worst in the MLB), an average exit velocity of 90.6MPH (sixth-worst in the MLB) and a fly-ball rate of 46.5% (tenth-worst in the MLB).
Play 3: Juan Soto to Hit a Home Run (+360) FanDuel
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays 3:05PM ET
We are somewhat mad at Soto, who hit a home run yesterday when we did not have him, but of course did not hit a home run on Thursday when we did. Let's hope he redeems himself and hits one deep today. Soto is having a great year for the Yankees, and he also has a great pitching matchup against Chris Bassitt of the Blue Jays.
Bassitt has had a decent year overall, but he struggles with left-handed hitters. He has allowed eight home runs on the year, seven of which have come against LHH. His fly-ball rate, pull-rate and hard hit rate are all higher against lefties, with the biggest gap being his hard hit rate going from 21.6% against RHH all the way up to 41.3% against LHH.
Soto, meanwhile, has the ninth-best ISO rate in the MLB at .268 (FanGraphs considers anything 25% and above to be "excellent"), a barrel rate of 18.7% (third-best in the MLB) and an average exit velocity of 94.4MPH (fifth-best in the MLB). Soto is also slightly better against right-handed pitching as well, with an ISO rate of .275 against righties specifically, with a slightly higher fly-ball rate against RHP as well. Soto has two hits in nine at-bats against Bassitt with no home runs, so let's hope he changes that today.
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Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
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